My last two journal entries were both about things I recently
posted at my “site”on The Well.  This one isn't.

This is to let you know about a couple of mishaps I've had lately: I fell down.  Twice.

The first time, I was a on a ladder in my living room, and then a twinge caused me to lose my balance, and then I was lying on the floor, on my side.  I decided not to use that ladder
again.  And I went on about my life, more or less normally, for two weeks.

Yesterday, I fell down again.  The culprit this time was some slippery outdoor stairs.  I ended up in a remarkably similar position—lying on my side—only on wet ground.

I took more drastic action this time: was seen at the doctor's office the same day.  Got X-rayed, confirmed an absence of any fractures, not even the “hairline” kind.  Wheels
were set in motion to get me into physical therapy.

This didn't come out of nowhere: a month and a half ago, I told my doctor about an increase in lower back pain.  What I didn't understand, then, was that such an increase is often gradual … until it isn't.  One day, you try a movement you've done before, but this time, the muscles (joints, whatever) can't handle it.  So: twinge of pain, spasm, fall down go boom.

No physical therapist yet, but I will claim already to have heightened powers of observation, with early indications that this may help the situation going forward.

This is what is known as a growth opportunity.
 

Today is Tuesday, September 22, 2020.  Six weeks remain before the general election on Tuesday, November 3.

You may be familiar with the saying, "Prediction is difficult, especially when it concerns the future."  I think there's a lot of truth in that.  I also think that prediction is more difficult when you don't know what's going on in the present.

Today is Tuesday, September 15, 2020.  Seven weeks remain before the general election on Tuesday, November 3.

When I started this countdown, there were fourteen weeks remaining.  So we're halfway there.

Around that time, I expressed the opinion — though not in this journal — that President Trump would act crazier and crazier as the election approached.  So far, I think I am right.

This makes for uneasy times (for those of use who think that Trump's re-election would be a disaster).  One reason for this, as I see it: often, when Trump does something crazy, it pushes my emotions in two directions at once.  On the one hand, it makes it less likely that he actually will be re-elected.  On the other hand, it makes it seem more likely that he will try to stay in power even if he isn't.

Now, here is one thought that has some tendency to reassure me — though not as much as I wish it would.  I genuinely believe that it is very unlikely that he would succeed in staying in power against the will of the electorate.  (One reason why this isn't sufficiently reassuring: even if it failed, the attempt would cause an awful lot of additional harm.)

If you frequently find yourself just wishing that it were over, as I do, this could be part of the reason why.

A week ago today (May 29) Robert Mueller made the first appearance in his farewell tour as Special Counsel.  He also made clear that, if he had his way, it would be the last such appearance.

It was the biggest cliffhanger since the ending of "The Sopranos."  Across America and around the world, people were left wondering, "What happens next?"


For some, notably members of Congress, the question (or complaint) took a different form: "Wait, weren't you supposed to tell us what we should do next?"  I think many of them were counting on that, but he didn't deliver.  So now they, and lots of the rest of us, want to know: "Why didn't he?"


I don't know why he didn't.  (Surely you're not surprised: you've already heard that "I don't know" are my favorite three little words.)  But seeing how disconcerted folks are, I have decided to offer my readers a theory about it.


The actual theory isn't part of this journal entry; it's elsewhere on the Web.  It takes the form of a short piece of speculative fiction. Or more exactly, a short fictional piece of nonfiction: an article which, I ask you to imagine, will appear in The New York Times, [redacted] years in the future.


Even more specifically, it's an interview.  Mr. Mueller sits down with Robert De Niro, whom I have cast as both his interviewer and his anger translator.  By working together, and with the advantage of hindsight, they come to a resolution which makes things clearer to them.  And to me. And I hope that it will do so for you, as well.


Here's where you will find it:


   https://people.well.com/user/edelsont/politics/mueller-speaks.pdf

 
 

I'm afraid so.  I can't resist the compulsion to revisit the topic of impeaching Donald Trump.


I already have twelve journal entries with the tag "impeachment."  That's more than for any other tag except (shudder) "Donald Trump" himself.  The first one was posted on November 7, 2017, and the most recent on April 22, 2019.


But the most recent entry in which I expressed an actual opinion on impeachment itself was the one with subject line "The impeachment question is really two questions," which was posted on March 17 of this year.  That's the one I shall now revisit.


Its first point, as its subject line suggests, is that it is worth separating two different questions about the impeachment of Trump.  The first question is whether that would be justifiable (morally, legally, constitutionally).  The second is whether it would be advisable: the best thing to do for the future of our nation.


Besides distinguishing the two questions, I also offered my own then-current answers to them.  To the first (Is it justified?), question, I gave a simple "yes." But on the second (Is it advisable?) question, I was much less definite: the strongest statement I could muster was that I "leaned toward" considering it advisable.


A lot has happened since then.  When I posted that, even Attorney General William Barr hadn't seen the Mueller report.  Now, its release has prompted a lot more discussion of impeachment than there had been before March 17.  From my perusal of those discussions, I have learned some things.


One thing I learned was that my own claim, that we should distinguish between two questions, was prescient.  The more recent debates about impeachment have actually been two debates. One, which plays out, very roughly, between Republicans and Democrats, is about whether impeachment (and removal) would be justifiable.  The other debate is between people (mostly Democrats) who agree with each other that it would be justifiable, but disagree about whether starting a formal impeachment proceeding now is, in some broader sense, a good idea.  So, approximately the same two questions I was posing way back when.


Most of the rest of the important things I have learned have come from paying attention to the second debate.  That question (We'd be perfectly justified in impeaching Trump, but should we actually do it?) hadn't been discussed much, in public, until recently.  So it has been very instructive to me to see the sorts of things that have been raised as arguments for, and against, the "yes, let's do it" position.


I'm not going to rehearse those pros and cons -- not in this journal entry.  But I am going to tell you that the process has changed my own mind on the second question.  Where before I merely "leaned toward" the idea that a formal impeachment inquiry should begin, I now firmly believe that it should.


At the same time, I still believe that it is a question about which reasonable people can disagree.  This is the remnant of the previous urge to hold back from stating a definite opinion. What's left of that urge no longer appears to me as doubt, but rather as epistemological modesty, that is, as the need to acknowledge that one cannot, in principle, be absolutely certain about anything.


If you'd rather not read any more rants from me on the subject of impeachment, you just might get your wish.  I'm not saying that I won't write any, just that I am thinking of posting them somewhere else than here in my personal Dreamwidth journal.


But if you really want me to stop banging the drums for impeachment completely, in any forum, there's one sure-fire way of making that happen: just do it.  Impeach the Orange Outrage, and get it over with.



 I have a question for you: what do you think are the most important three little words in the English language?

Now, because I used the phrase "three little words," it's likely that the first answer that came to your mind is "I love you."  But if you know me, you'll know that, precisely because I manipulated you into thinking of that answer first, it's quite unlikely that that is the "right answer" in my eyes.


By the way, it isn't my intention to minimize the importance of "I love you."  What I do want to do is to call your attention to the importance of these other three words -- which I'll reveal any minute now, I promise -- because I think they deserve more attention than they usually get.  Perhaps, indeed, my question would have been clearer if I had asked, not for the "most important" three words, but for the most underrated ones, instead.


So.  IMIHO (in my insufficiently humble opinion), the most important, and/or most underrated, three little words in the English language are ...


"I don't know."


What's so important about them?  Well, that's real simple. People make a lot of very bad decisions because they ask themselves "What will happen if I do <whatever>" -- and then, if they like the answer, proceed to do <whatever>, without ever thinking about whether their prediction was certain, or just likely.


Suppose, for example, you were to get into your car, and ask yourself, "Am I going to have an accident on this trip?"  And answer "no," because, well, you probably won't. But then, because the answer was no, you conclude that there's no point in fastening your seat belt.  That's irrational, for obvious reasons, right? (Please say yes.)


If every example of the importance of "I don't know" were like that one, then the importance of it would be one of those things which is true, but doesn't need to be said -- in this case, because it's so obvious.  But not all the examples are like that.


Suppose you are deciding who's going to get your vote for president of your country.  One of the candidate says things like "Only I can fix it." And he makes clear in other ways that, if elected, he will centralize as much power as possible in his own office.  His central message, perhaps not quite explicit, is "Trust me, and I'll take care of everything."


And suppose further you are, in fact, inclined to trust the guy.  Maybe because, unlike other politicians, he seems to be saying what he really thinks.  And so you decide to vote for him.


This, I submit, is highly irrational too, but the reasons why it is irrational may not be quite as obvious as they were in the seat belt example.  After all, you're supposed to make up your own mind, so, if your own gut feeling is that this is the most trustworthy of the candidates, then what's wrong with voting for him on this basis?


Fundamentally, in order to understand what's wrong with it, you need to realize that, no matter how strong your gut feeling is, you don't know for certain that this candidate will prove worthy of that trust.  And therefore, you need also to ask yourself: "What's the downside in case I turn out to be wrong?"


If this is also the one candidate who says he will be a "strong leader" -- will make the decisions himself, not let himself be ordered around by, say, Congress -- then the downside is considerable.  In such a case, it may be more rational to vote for another candidate, one whose record suggests that he will "play by the rules," as set forth in the United States Constitution, even if your gut feel rates this other candidate lower on the personal trustworthiness scale.


I am (perhaps exceedingly!) confident that this, the importance of "I don't know," is, in fact, the fundamental principle behind all the "checks and balances" built into our Constitution.  The people who wrote the thing went to a lot of trouble to (try to) make sure that no one person, or branch, had absolute power. Why did they bother? Because they understood that we can never know for sure who, if anyone, can be trusted that far.


So now you know the rest of the story.


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