Well, my last journal entry didn't succeed in its purpose.  After pondering, I think I know why: it was a mistake to present it to you as a riddle.

So here you go: same basic idea, presented in a different format.

Bob Hope: Hey, you sing a little.  Let me ask you a question: what do you think of the Trump campaign's pick for its official song?

Bing Crosby: Sorry, I hadn't heard about it.  What was their choice?

Hope: "Send Lawyers, Guns, and Money."

Crosby: Ooh ... catchy title!  Who wrote it?

So, what did y'all think of the Trump campaign's choice of a new theme song?  Me, I thought it fit real good.

As you may have read, the former president, Donald Trump, has been indicted on charges related to illegal handling of classified documents.  (Or more precisely, secret, or restricted-access documents; some of them are not, technically, "classified.")

What's going to happen?  This is not one question, but many.  I will offer a possible answer to one of them.

Let's narrow the question.  Let's assume that the case will go to trial.  What sort of defense will Trump direct his lawyers to present?  I wouldn't be surprised if he told them to argue as follows:

  • Trump won the 2020 election.
  • Therefore, Trump remains rightfully the president.
  • Therefore, if the indictment says that Trump did something illegal on a particular date, Trump was president on that date.
  • So, even if Trump did each act that the indictment says he did, on the date that the indictment says he did it … none of those acts were illegal.  The president can legally do anything he chooses with any government document, "classified" or not.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump insisted that his attorneys argue the case that way, because I think that such an argument would be entirely reasonable … to him.

What do you think?  Might this happen?  What would be the outcome if it did?

Ever since the events of January 6, I've been wondering what Donald Trump could possibly do for an encore.  Until yesterday, that is.  That was when I learned that he is scheduled to give a major speech—the first one since that awful day in DC.

Next Sunday, February 28, he will address the annual convention of CPAC (Conservative Political Action Committee).  It promises to be a stirring event.

Oh, by the way: this year's CPAC will take place in Orlando, FL.

With that last piece of information, it all falls into place: it becomes obvious what will happen when the speech concludes.  The audience will stream out of the arena, march down the street, and attack Disney World.

Today is Tuesday, September 15, 2020.  Seven weeks remain before the general election on Tuesday, November 3.

When I started this countdown, there were fourteen weeks remaining.  So we're halfway there.

Around that time, I expressed the opinion — though not in this journal — that President Trump would act crazier and crazier as the election approached.  So far, I think I am right.

This makes for uneasy times (for those of use who think that Trump's re-election would be a disaster).  One reason for this, as I see it: often, when Trump does something crazy, it pushes my emotions in two directions at once.  On the one hand, it makes it less likely that he actually will be re-elected.  On the other hand, it makes it seem more likely that he will try to stay in power even if he isn't.

Now, here is one thought that has some tendency to reassure me — though not as much as I wish it would.  I genuinely believe that it is very unlikely that he would succeed in staying in power against the will of the electorate.  (One reason why this isn't sufficiently reassuring: even if it failed, the attempt would cause an awful lot of additional harm.)

If you frequently find yourself just wishing that it were over, as I do, this could be part of the reason why.

Well, my truth, anyway.  Specifically, my views on Donald Trump's "perfect" conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart, and about what has happened as a result of it: all of a sudden, the I-word (impeachment) has gone from being taboo to being on many people's lips.

As things stand right now, the most complete collection of my writings on this subject can be found on the page called "The Decline and Fall of Donald Trump", whose URL is

https://people.well.com/user/edelsont/politics/decline-and-fall/index.html

That page has a few paragraphs of introduction, followed by links to two sub-pages (so far): "Suddenly, everything is impeachy" and "In-competence We Trust."

If the title of the first sub-page sounds familiar, that's because its body text is a copy of the most recent entry in this, my Dreamwidth journal.  But the second sub-page, the one about incompetence, is new.  It suggests that Trump is not only morally unfit for his job, but also incompetent at it, in a value-neutral sense.  And furthermore, because of the stress he is under, his incompetence is getting progressively worse.

That's at least partly good news, for those of us who believe that his goals are mostly bad ones.  The more incompetent he is, the less likely he is to achieve those goals.

And right now, his central goal is to stay in office.

So the rhetorical purpose of the incompetence page is to give encouragement to those who hope that he will not stay in office much longer; in other words, to give support to my prediction that Donald Trump will cease being president in January of 2021, if not sooner.

I hope that you will choose to read "The Decline and Fall of Donald Trump," and its sub-pages.  But even more, I hope that the foregoing "fair and balanced" description of what is to be found there will enable you to make an informed decision of your own as to whether to do so.


For someone who has already mouthed off about impeaching Donald Trump as much as I have, I am myself surprised at how little I feel like talking about it now.  Yes, I do want to be on record as favoring this newly declared "formal impeachment inquiry" (does the "formal" part mean top hat, white tie, and tails?).  But I haven't felt much enthusiasm for explaining why.

Let me do this, though: give you a peek into my crystal ball as to how I think things are likely to play out.

Impeachment itself: yes, more likely than not, the House will vote to impeach that bad boy.

Removal: will the Senate vote, with a 2/3 majority, to "convict" him, and thereby effectuate his removal from office?  This is harder to judge.  I guess, if I were forced to predict, one way or the other, I would say "no."

The conventional wisdom, however, seems to be that they certainly will not.  I think this degree of confidence (if that's the right word for it) is highly misplaced.

But let's assume that they don't, and further assume that this means that the 2020 general election will go forward with Trump as the Republican nominee.  Will he win?

I don't think so.  I make no claim to certainty about this, nor do I think I can meaningfully estimate a numerical probability.  But here's a question I do want to answer: will he be more likely to win, or less so, because of having gone through the impeachment process?

Less so, I think.  Having seen President Trump be impeached, and having seen however the Senate responds to that, will (I claim) make the electorate more likely to vote him out.

Of course, I make no claim to certainty about this, either.  It seems worth mentioning partly because once again, I think I am going against the conventional wisdom: that the consensus of the chattering class seems to be that impeachment, followed by acquittal in the Senate, would help him at the polls.

Oddly, those making this prediction have generally, in my experience, not said much about why they believe it to be so.  The only explanation that I can recall is this: the impeachment process will get Trump's supporters "more fired up" about re-electing him.

But will it?  I think that depends on which "Trump supporters" you are talking about.  For the really hard-core, "base" supporters, this prediction does, indeed, seem plausible to me.

But remember: no matter how fired up someone is, he or she only has one vote.

That being the case, it seems to be more relevant to ask, instead, about the effect on a different group: those who voted for Trump in 2016, but were not, and have not become, passionate true believers in his cause.  For that group of "supporters," my prediction is that the impeachment experience will probably reduce the number of them who will vote for him again.

It is also worth noting that impeachment's effect on the election results might not be so very big, one way or the other.

So I guess I have, sort of, said something about why I see the recent impeachment developments in a positive light: why I approve of the House Democrats' long-delayed decision to "formalize their relationship" with Mr. Trump.  At least, what I have said could be taken to imply an attempted rebuttal of the claim that "Impeachment may be justified, but it's political suicide."

What do you think?


I posted something earlier today in Dreamwidth's "talkpolitics community".  The subject line was "How to beat Trump, continued: don't neglect his incompetence", and you can find it at https://talkpolitics.dreamwidth.org/2131075.html.

The entry you are reading is a public service announcement, directed at those people who have been dragooned into following my journal, but are not otherwise involved with Dreamwidth.  It's just to let them know that the entry in "talkpolitics" is there.

And I have a dream.  I dream that some few, among that already distinguished population, will come to notice the many pleasures to be found in talkpolitics itself.  And dare I hope that one or two might, in the fullness of time, choose to become participants in that little (but global) community?

In the meantime, my apologies to those who had no need of this notification, since they are already part of the "talkpolitics" fraternity.


I think it was some time after Donald Trump was elected, but before he took office.  I read an opinion piece in The New York Times, in which the reader was urged not to forget how abnormal it is to have a president like this.


The writer invoked the analogy of the frog in the pot of water.  You know, where if you increase the temperature of the water gradually enough, the frog will get used to it, and stay right there until he boils to death.  I scoffed: "Human beings wouldn't be that stupid."


It's an effective rhetorical device.  That frog came back to my mind recently, when I started to wonder whether I had been overconfident, earlier, about the ability of humans to perceive danger and respond to it.


And then, by pure coincidence, I stumbled across this Wikipedia page: "List of common misconceptions" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_common_misconceptions).  Therein it is revealed, among many other fascinating factoids, that the frog story is just not true.  The experiment has been done (I'd like to read the grant proposal, wouldn't you?).  It turns out that, at some temperature well below the boiling point, the frog jumps out of the pot.


So now we know: if Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020, then the American people are dumber than frogs.


 

Sigh.  I return once again to the topic of politics, and specifically Donald Trump, and specifically impeachment.  In this particular journal entry, though, I am not going to offer any opinions on the subject, only facts.


First, a bit of background.  There has been more talk of impeachment recently: specifically, since the release of [the redacted version of] the report of Robert Mueller, the special counsel.  Yesterday, The New York Times reported that Elizabeth Warren had declared that "... the House [of Representatives] should initiate impeachment proceedings against the President of the United States."


I have noticed, in the past, that talk of impeachment [of this president] often leads to talk of violence: for example, to the prediction (or threat) that a move to impeach would result in "civil war."  I have observed this in various places, but mostly on the Web site which calls itself "Breitbart News Network."


(To be clear, I have never noticed threats of violence in the actual "news stories" on Breitbart -- only in the comments on those stories posted on the site by readers.)


So yesterday, I became curious as to whether any of that sort of comments would be attached to their [presumed] story on what Warren had said.  So I went to look. Did I find any?


Boy, did I ever.  Here is a selection.


...


Pitching gas on impeachment fire! ...

These folks shall find themselves on the business end of pitchforks and weapons...

They are oblivious to the massive fire needing but the spark of impeachment to ignite....


...


Didn't Warren lie on her applications about her race so she could get goodies? She should be in prison not the Senate. Democrats, keep pushing it. You are making it easier by the day to accept suspending the Constitution to round you up and put an end to your sedition and treason. Pigs.


...


Initiate impeachment and we declare open season....


...


Trump Disorder Syndrome can be cured with a .45 cal enema :)


...


Initiate it and the people will rise up and pound the Dems out of existence. Time to make Dems extinct.


...


I wouldn't mind one itty bitty bit if the next time PRESIDENT Trump leaves D.C., either Iran, north Korea, china, or Russia were to conduct a laydown consisting of 12 20-MT thermalnuclear devices while congress is busy in the capital building.

They would be doing the nation a world of good getting rid of those 500 plus leaches.

For a bonus they should lob 3 of the same weapons on each of the following; SHITcago, NYC, Boston, L.A., San Fran, Portland, and Seattle.


...


"Mueller Report Shows Obstruction, ‘Initiate Impeachment’"... Better idea...Lets break out the Rope and start mass ex e cutions of lying DemRats and MSM talking heads and take our country back


...


(End of quoted comments.)


I may, in future journal entries, have some comments on these comments, and/or questions about them.  For now, I shall let them speak for themselves.


I've been wanting to post a clarification—or, if you prefer, a correction—of my most recent post ("Q: How do you respond to a national emergency? A: Impeach the man who created it.").  A recent reply to that post has further prodded me to attempt that clarification.  So here goes.

In the original post, I certainly sounded like I was beating the drums for impeachment: "Do it!  Do it now!."  This doesn't make clear what question I was trying to answer.

A vague, generic formulation of the question would be something like: "Should we impeach (and remove) President Donald Trump?"  But here are two more precisely formulated questions:

  • Given what we know so far, would impeaching (and removing) Trump be justified?

  • Given what we know so far, would impeaching (and removing) Trump be advisable?

And my main point, today, is that these are two different questions, to which an individual might reasonably give different answers.  And when we talk about impeachment, we might understand each other better by making clear (as I did not), in any opinion we state, which question we are answering.

So what are my own answers to these two different questions?

To the question of whether removing Trump is justifiable, I answer "yes."  This is the question I was really focused on answering; in particular, whether removal is justified by his blatantly unconstitutional "declaration of emergency," even without considering his various other transgressions.

And behind that opinion, by the way, is a more general opinion, which I didn't even state explicitly: that an "impeachable offense" (an action which justifies impeachment and removal) need not be a crime: need not be something to which the law attaches a criminal penalty.  An attempt by the president to exceed his powers by doing something obviously unconstitutional is also an impeachable offense.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that, other things being equal, a blatantly unconstitutional power grab, like this "emergency" declaration, is, other things being equal, more clearly an impeachable offense than is committing a crime, as such.  Abuse of power is, fundamentally, what the impeachment provision in the Constitution is for.

So I am doubling down on my original position, as clarified.  I strongly believe that, given the emergency declaration and its context, impeaching Trump and removing him from office would be justified.

But do I believe that it would be advisable?  My answer to that one is, in fact, different, at least in degree of conviction.  I lean toward believing it to be advisable, but I am far less certain of that.  I don't want to be a crusader for it, at least not at this time.  As I said in my reply to the anonymous comment, I think it may be just as well that that decision is not mine to make.


Now he's gone and done it.  Donald Trump has declared that a decades-old situation at the US - Mexican border has suddenly become a "national emergency."  He thinks that, having done so, he can now spend money on a "big, beautiful wall": money that Congress has, just now, refused to appropriate.

I don't think so, and I'm not alone.  The media have published various pieces on ways that he could be prevented from doing this.  One of those is Answers to 4 Key Questions About Trump’s Declaration of an Emergency, by Nicholas Fandos, published yesterday in The New York Times.

From the second paragraph of that story: "Lawmakers seeking to block the president have two paths — one in Congress, the other in the courts."  It becomes clear, a little further down, that the path "in Congress" that he has in mind is this: "Under the National Emergencies Act, the House and the Senate can take up what is called a joint resolution of termination to end the emergency status ...."

Well, yeah, they can do that.  What surprisingly few people have mentioned, so far, is that there's something else, something more decisive, that they can do.  That something is called impeachment.

I have posted a comment on that Times story.  The full text of my comment reads as follows:


From the story: "Lawmakers seeking to block the president have two paths ...."

That is not correct.  There is a third option, and it is the one that I recommend.

The House of Representatives can vote to impeach the president, and the Senate can remove him from office.

This so-called "state of emergency" is utterly unlike any declared before.  Let's call it what it is: an attempt to overthrow the Constitution.

As such, it is fully sufficient, even without the other high crimes and misdemeanors of which we know or suspect, to justify removing him from office.

And there is no need for committee hearings.  The House, at least, could have its floor vote today.


You already know, I assume, that it's not just improbable that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020; it's Constitutionally impossible.

But just for giggles, let's nobody tell Trump that, okay?


President Trump has proven me wrong about something.  I never thought I'd see the day when he did something that was memorable for its originality.

But he has!  He has created a highly innovative, and quite effective, method of terrorism.

Think about it.  The people of this country have been attacked with bombs, with guns, and with crashing airplanes.  But it took the genius of Donald Trump to realize that you could bring the United States of America to its knees by committing political suicide.


I certainly hit a speed bump at the end of the last post (the one dated 2018-12-27, with subject line "... but we should fire the poor bastard anyway.").  And it has taken me this long to figure out what the source of the difficulty was, and how to get past it.

To put it simply, I lost track of what point I wanted to make.  Here's the part of the text where, I now believe, I went off the rails:

... how can I say that it's time to get to work on firing the poor bastard, when in just the last post, I said that we need to emphasize Donald Trump's incompetence more, and his evil nature less?

That quote implies that there is some sort of a contradiction between emphasizing Trump's incompetence, and suggesting that the new Congress should be looking seriously at impeaching him.  What made me think that those things were, or even sounded, contradictory?  Answer: the idea that you can't impeach the president for being incompetent, only for doing something wrong, something with [at least] the "flavor" of criminality.

Well, I might actually believe that, and I might not.  But if I hadn't lost track of my point, I would have realized that it was a mistake to even raise that question, let alone go off, as I did, on a long detour on the subject of whether or not it is possible to give a positive definition of what constitutes an impeachable "offense."  That may be a worthwhile question, but for purposes of the point I was actually trying to make, it doesn't matter.

Why not?  Because I never intended to suggest that Trump should be impeached "merely" for being incompetent.

On December 25, I posted a journal entry with the subject line, "Pity our underprivileged president ...," whose central point was that Trump's critics, myself included, "tend to focus too much on his being bad, and not enough on his being incompetent."  Two days later, I posted the one already mentioned, the one that said (though not in these words) that I thought it was now time to begin impeachment proceedings.  By posting those two statements in quick succession like that, I may have misled the reader into thinking that I wanted to claim that they were very closely related: that we should be looking at impeaching and removing the president, because of his incompetence.

Whether or not I did give any readers that mistaken impression, I now realize that I somehow managed to give it to myself.  Why, actually, did I follow a statement about incompetence with a statement about impeachment?

Not because I wanted to say that he should be impeached for incompetence.  No, in my original train of thought, mentioning impeachment was meant to be nothing more than an aside to the reader.  "Don't misunderstand me," I wanted, in effect, to say.  "Just because I think Trump's incompetence deserves more attention, doesn't mean that I believe that he shouldn't be impeached.  I do think he should be (or at least that Congress needs seriously to be considering the possibility)."

And if someone were to object that incompetence isn't grounds for impeachment, there would be no need to argue with that person.  I could just say, "Oh, you mean that there needs to be a flavor of criminality, an intent to do something wrong?  No problem.  He's got those, too."

And then, having gotten that out of the way, I could have returned to my main thread: clarifying, and arguing for, the claim that with all the focus on Trump's unethical character, we tend to forget that his incompetence is a major factor in the situation, the mess in which we find ourselves, as well.

Exhibit A: the government shutdown.  A competent individual would never have let himself get caught in the double-bind in which Donald Trump finds himself now.

Things move so fast that I can't be sure what I will write about next.  But I will surely find an opportunity, sooner or later, to expand on this point about the shutdown.  Just not today.

What's that?  You say you can't stand the suspense?  Okay, here's a hint.  Whose shutdown is it?

Does Trump "own" it?  A good guess, but I don't think it gets to the heart of the matter.  Ask yourself this: can you think of anyone who is active in American politics, and who actually benefits from the shutting down of the United States government?  If you give that some serious thought, I think you will come to the same conclusion that I have: that we should be calling this the "Putin shutdown."


Just a few things to clarify, in relation to the last post (the one with the subject line, "Pity our underprivileged president ...").

Do I really think we should pity him, or consider him "underprivileged"?  Absolutely.  If you could choose, wouldn't you prefer being mentally privileged, rather than financially so?

What do I mean by "we should fire [him]"?  I mean that the House of Representatives should impeach him, and the Senate should remove him from office.

I've written, in this journal, on the subject of impeachment before.  I made myself sound dubious on the subject.  But I never really said we shouldn't impeach him; only that the time didn't seem right to put energy into promoting the idea.

I think that has changed.  Don't you?

Specifically, I am now prepared to say that it's time to begin impeachment proceedings.

Why?  Well, I won't pretend that a Democratic majority in the House is totally irrelevant to my coming to this conclusion.  But it's not really the reason for it.

Then what is?  I won't attempt a comprehensive, general answer to this (not here and now, at least).  For one thing, new facts have come to light.  Also, other contributors to the public debate have, in the interim, come to the same change in, or clarification of, their positions; I generally agree with their reasoning.

There's really only one [more?] substantive point that I want to make, here, and even that one will be somewhat abbreviated.  I just want to take a shot at answering this question: how can I say that it's time to get to work on firing the poor bastard, when in just the last post, I said that we need to emphasize Donald Trump's incompetence more, and his evil nature less?

Now, why is that even a question?  Because the Constitution has that infamous phrase: a president (or other official) may be impeached for (and, apparently, only for) "high crimes and misdemeanors."

There is nothing like consensus on what, exactly, that phrase means.  Indeed, there may simply be no answer as to exactly what it means.  There does, in my reading, seem to be something close to a consensus on one thing that it doesn't mean: the most respected scholars on the subject seem to agree that an "impeachable offense" is not, always and necessarily, a crime in the penal-code sense.

And yet, and yet.  Those words, "high crimes and misdemeanors," continue to bedevil us.  So, for that matter, does the phrase "impeachable offense" (emphasis added).  These usages nudge us into thinking that valid grounds for impeachment must be something like being guilty of a crime.  In particular, they make us reluctant to think that it would be proper to "fire" someone, under this process, "merely" for incompetence.

And shouldn't we be reluctant to do that?  At this point, the best I can do is to answer the question with a question: how reluctant should we be?  I agree with the intuition that we don't want the House and Senate to feel that they can remove the president whenever they feel like it.  But that doesn't give us a set of criteria, an algorithm that will tell us, or them, when it is Constitutionally proper to take this step.

Maybe it's just not possible to frame a usable set of criteria for this.  Maybe such decisions can only reasonably be made in examining the facts of a concrete case.  Maybe we need to say, today, about "impeachable offense," what I believe a Supreme Court justice did say, years ago, about pornography: "I can't define it, but I know it when I see it."

Essentially, I do believe that.  At least the part about its being impossible to frame an explicit, algorithm-like set of criteria for what constitutes an impeachable offense.  But I also think that there is more that can usefully be said about what would constitute a fair-minded approach to such a decision, in the matter of Donald Trump.

There is more to be said, but I am not prepared to say it now.


In the last week and change, something has come into clearer focus for me.  It's not really a new thought, but it's gotten much more vivid and concrete.  Namely: those of us who think Donald Trump is a lousy president tend to focus too much on his being bad, and not enough on his being incompetent.

Here's a thought experiment.  Imagine a child born on the same day that he was: June 14, 1946.  Imagine that child's genetic endowment, and his parents' personalities, to be the same as they were for the real Trump.  But imagine that family's economic status to have been lower middle class.

What would this child have become, 72 years later?  My best guess: a wino.

Assuming he even lived that long.


I wrote a letter today to Richard Burr, one of the U.S. Senators for the state in which I live. (Or, to be more exact, I left a message on his Web site.)

My subject line was "Please vote no on Kavanaugh." And here is the body text:

Full disclosure: I am a Democrat, and I have multiple reasons for not supporting the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice. But today I learned of a new reason, which can be stated in the title of a New York Times story: "Trump Taunts Christine Blasey Ford at Rally".

You might say, "Huh? Surely even a Democrat can see that a comment by the president changes nothing .. that is, nothing relevant to whether Kavanaugh is qualified for the job." True enough, it doesn't.

But someone has to let Trump know that he can't get away with making such disgusting remarks. Since he clearly has no shame, the only way to get that message to him is to show him that his words have consequences.

And it is in your self-interest to rebuke him in that way. Not despite the fact that you are a Republican, but because you are. Republican politicians who let the president say such things, without consequences, are tying themselves to him in a way that will not be good for you. You are tying yourselves, not just to his political views (to the limited extent that he has any coherent political views), but to his character.

If you don't think that that will be detrimental to your own political prospects, sooner or later, then all I can say is: Good luck with that.

This just in: the President of the United States is nuts.  I know, I know, it's a shock.  I mean, we all had no idea, right?  (Shut up.)

Now here's the bad news.  Just knowing he's crazy, that doesn't tell us exactly what his diagnosis is.  You see, there's more than one way of being crazy ... more than one way, even, of being crazy with the exact same symptoms.

To be able to talk about this more clearly, let's drop the word "crazy" and use "irrational" instead.  We call someone's behavior irrational when we think that it is -- in a way that should be obvious to a normal person -- ineffective in getting him what he wants.  In order to draw that conclusion, though, we have to know, or assume, what it is that he does want.  More often than not, we can't know; we have to assume.  Because more often than not, there's more than one answer to that question (what the person wants) that makes sense in the light of his observed behavior.  Faced with this ambiguity, we generally end up assuming that what the person wants is like what most other people want.

For example, suppose the president frequently says things that are so obviously untrue that hardly anyone is going to believe them.  In fact, it's so obvious (that he won't be believed) that we feel that he must be aware of it.  Or at least, he would realize this if he thought about it.

This is puzzling behavior, because, when a person asserts something, we usually assume that he wants to be believed.  This is a pretty safe assumption if he's telling the truth, or thinks he is.  But it's also pretty safe if he's lying.  What purpose could possibly be served by saying something when, not only do you know it's not true, but you also know that you won't be believed?  (Or "should" know: remember, we've already ruled out simple ignorance as the explanation.)

The behavior is puzzling because we usually expect, by default, that people will act rationally, and that doesn't seem to be the case here.  However, it can be irrational in more than one way.  I will mention two.

The first way we could interpret it is to figure that the president doesn't want what we originally thought he did; in this case, that he doesn't want to be believed.  Why wouldn't he?  Maybe he doesn't want to go on being president.  Maybe he's actually hoping that people will notice that he's acting irrationally, and rescue him from the job in which he feels trapped.

Interestingly, this is not just something that "someone might think": it has actually been put forward as an explanation of President Trump's recent behavior.  In the cases I've seen, the writer doesn't explicitly use the word "unconscious" (as in "has an unconscious desire to be removed from the presidency"), but I take it to be implied.  It's certainly more plausible that way.

But as I said, there could be a different kind of irrationality at play here.  This one's a little harder to explain, but that could be merely because we're not used to talking about it in such detail.

Under this theory, if you ask whether he wants to be believed, the answer isn't a simple "yes" or "no."  Instead, it needs to be something like this: generally, he does want to be believed.  And presumably, he would in this case too ... if he took the time to think about it.

But he didn't.  Someone said something negative about him.  That made him feel bad.  Snapping back and contradicting what they said will make him feel better, so he does that.  The reaction is so automatic that he literally never thinks about whether he will be believed.

This is called being impulsive.  And this, also, has, in the real world, been put forward as an explanation of some of Trump's behavior.  I believe that this is what people are referring to when they say Trump acts like he's nine years old (or thereabouts).

For what it's worth, this seems pretty plausible to me: more plausible, in general, than the theory that he has an unconscious desire to be removed from the presidency.  But that's not very important.  What matters is that both theories have some plausibility; each is sufficiently consistent with the observable facts that it can't be easily, and with certainty, ruled out.

So that's what I meant by different ways of being irrational.  Same observable behavior, different possible explanations of what's going on inside his skull.  What to do?

Perhaps we need to fall back to a behaviorist approach, also known as stimulus-response theory.  The basic idea here: since you can't directly observe what's going on inside the subject's head, don't even try to guess.  Just look for patterns in what stimulus produces what response.  If you think you see a pattern, then ideally, you should confirm it experimentally: predict the response to a new stimulus, apply that stimulus, and see whether your prediction was correct.

Here's a really simple example.  First, the observation from which you will be asked to infer a pattern.  (Normally, one would prefer to have many more observations, but in this case it hardly seems necessary.)  Stimulus: Trump learns that a number of people, who interacted with him one-on-one in the White House, have been saying that he's an idiot.  Response: he produces a tweet saying that he's a genius.

Now the test question.  How do you think Trump would respond if he were told that he is suffering from gravitosis (a disease which I just made up)?  The symptoms, we explain, are that the body feels as if the force of gravity were steadily getting stronger.  And it looks that way from the outside, too.  In a case like his, the prognosis is not good: chances are that, in about two months, he will no longer be able to walk.

What's he gonna do if we talk that way?  My own guess: the next morning, he will deliver himself of a tweet announcing that he can fly.

And then ... this is admittedly less certain, but maybe ... he will declare that he intends to prove it.  The following day at noon, he's going to jump out of Air Force One, from an altitude of ten thousand feet, without a parachute.

If this experiment were to be performed, and the result were to be as I have suggested, then what?  Presumably, everybody with half a brain would then agree that the man is not playing with a full deck.  (Um, right?)  And so someone would lead him away to a nice safe place.

What?  You were thinking of letting him go through with it?  You should be ashamed of yourself.


The last three entries in this journal, like this one, all had subject lines beginning with "Impeachment: Why Not?"  None of them, however, was about reasons not to impeach President Trump.  Instead, they were about reasons why one might not choose to spend time, in the current situation, promoting the impeachment of President Trump.  See the difference?

The same is true of this one, except for one thing.  This isn't about why "one" might not "choose to spend time ... promoting the impeachment of President Trump."  This is more specific: not why "one" might not, but why I, personally, might not choose to keep on spending time on this.  (In fact, the chances are that, in the near future, I won't.)  There's more than one such personal reason, but, to a first approximation, they all boil down to one thing.

Reason Four: I Don't Want To

Okay, why don't I want to?

For one thing, I've developed a real craving to spend some time on things that have nothing to do with politics.  Computer programming, for instance.  It would be such a relief to take a break from worrying about mushy things like how to persuade someone of something.  With programming, it's much more straightforward: you write the program, you run it, and it either works or it doesn't.

And besides that, even when it is about politics -- even when it is about dealing with the nightmare that is the Trump presidency -- I'm not that sure that working for impeachment is the only way to go.  I can't shake the feeling that maybe what I, personally, really need to do is to move to Canada.  I'm not 100% sure about that, but I've reached the point where I am sure that I need to devote some serious time and energy to exploring that possibility more deeply.

At this point, my divided self manifests again.  To say such things, even in my head, provokes an angry response from another part of my mind.  It's a little like the argument I had with the lady in the peanut gallery, back in the entry headed "Impeachment: Are We There Yet?"  But this time, I will make it more obvious that I am arguing with myself, by presenting it as a dialogue between two "sides": the prosecution and the defense.

Prosecution: I am shocked -- shocked! -- that you would even consider such a selfish response.  You want to go off and write computer programs?  Isn't that a lot like fiddling while Rome burns?

And as for moving to Canada, that may be even worse.  You'd really save your own sorry butt, without a thought for the poor souls left behind?  I thought you were better than that.

Defense: That seems a little harsh.  With regard to the computer programming and other such alternate activities: when you have a big long-term project, sometimes you just need to take a break and do something else for a while.  It will probably benefit the project, in the long run, because you will come back to it fresher.

But more fundamentally, I'm not sure that this impeachment process is meant to be my project ... any more, at least.  Maybe I've already done the part of it that I'm even minimally qualified to do.

I can convince myself that there are good grounds for impeachment, in principle, based on what we already know, and on my own understanding of the Constitution.  But I already noted, back under "Impeachment: Why Not? (Reason 2)," that I am likely not the best person to convince others of this, if only because I am not a lawyer.

Besides, the question before us is not merely whether impeachment is justified, "in principle."  It's whether we should be throwing our efforts into making impeachment (and removal from office) actually happen.  And even if you assume that we could succeed in that -- maybe after the midterm elections? -- are we sure that it would be the best thing for the country?  (Assuming, again, that the grounds for impeachment are "just" the things we already know: that Trump hasn't, in the interim, made a blatant grab for dictatorial power.  If he does, that will change things.)

Because speaking for myself, I am not convinced, at least not yet (that removing Trump from office, before the end of his first term, and absent the "smoking gun," would be the best thing for the country).  I am not, however, aiming to start a discussion of whether it would be.  My point is simply that I don't feel like I'm the best qualified person to render an opinion on this.

In fact, I am sure that I am not qualified -- let alone the "best" qualified -- to render such an opinion.  Not at the moment, at least.  I am sure of this because I find that I don't even have an opinion on it ... not one that I'd feel comfortable sharing.

Perhaps I could develop one, in time.  But that's just "perhaps."  And, even if you assume that I could, I have no idea how long that would take.  I am almost sure that the only way I could do it, with real confidence in the result, would be ... wait for it ... first to clear my mind by taking a break from struggling with these issues, and, yes, to spend some time writing computer programs or something.

Prosecution: Unbelievable.  You are such a wimp (even if I, being you, say so myself).  Do you think that this is some sort of game?  The fate of the world may, quite literally, be at stake.

And you seem to be assuming that you can just take a pass, and someone else will take care of it.  But maybe you are the only one who can!  Maybe you are the one person who can think this through deeply enough, and find the right words to explain your conclusion, so that any rational person can read, and learn the truth.

Mind you, I can't prove that you are "the one."  But with so much at stake, since you can't prove that you're not the one person who can do it, aren't you obligated to try, whether you "want to" or not?

Defense: Got you, you self-righteous son of a bitch!  You fell right into my trap.

Prosecution: Huh?  What trap?

Defense: Let's grant you, "for the sake of the argument" (as we philosophers like to say), that you could get me, with continued liberal application of the whip, to write something that was ... acceptable.  Something that got the job done: that showed us all the safest way to get out of the Trump mess.

Except that in the real world, we'd never be really sure how much the outcome had been influenced by this thing I wrote.  Nor would we really know whether someone else could have written it, and maybe would have, if I had not.

But never mind that.  Here's something you can take to the bank.  If I actually did write something that was even potentially that important, then, before I finished it, I'd have at least half convinced myself that I actually was the only person who could have written it.  I know this for a fact, because it's happening to me right now.  And you know it too, because I'm you.

Prosecution: Yadda yadda.  What's all this about a trap?

Defense: You're going to have to put some big boy pants on, and be patient.  I'm getting there.

Now where was I?  Oh, yes.  I was saying that I would at least half convince myself that I really was the only person who could have written it.  And that would start me down a very dangerous path.

Prosecution: What are you talking about?

Defense: Once you start believing grandiose things like that about yourself, you can't stop.  It becomes an addiction: you keep on convincing yourself of more of them.  I -- we -- would be in serious danger of turning into another Donald Trump.

Prosecution: What ... oh.  I think I see where you're going with this.

Defense: Good; that means you're not as stupid as you look.  You remember, it was part of his standard stump speech.  He'd do his bad imitation of a hellfire-and-brimstone preacher, except he wasn't talking about the hereafter, he was talking about how awful everything supposedly was right now.  And then he'd finish that riff with these five words: "Only I can fix it."

Prosecution: [nods]

Defense: Which would have been fine, I guess; it was great theater ... for a certain sort of audience.  But then he had to go and win the damn thing.  So then everybody was watching him, to see if he could deliver.  And you know how that turned out.

So think about it.  Do you really want us to end up like he did?  The laughingstock of the planet?

Prosecution: [remains silent]

Defense: I didn't think so.


January 2025

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